San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Game 1 Odds, Pick, Prediction 10/7/22

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Perhaps the most exciting of the MLB wild card series will be played between these National League heavyweights on Friday, October 7, and here you can read the best Padres vs. Mets betting pick and odds.

San Diego and New York will play the first of a best-of-three NLWC series at Citi Field, and the Mets are -145 moneyline favorites on BetRivers NY Sportsbook, while the total is set at 6 runs. These NL rivals have met six times this season, and the Padres lead 4-2.

Padres lost the game but win the series against the Giants

The San Diego Padres will enter the postseason with an 89-73 record, but they are playing in a hot and cold form recently and will need a more stable form if they want to eliminate the Mets in this wild-card series. The Padres concluded the regular season with a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants. After winning the first two games, San Diego lost the final one 8-1. 

The Padres were bad offensively in this big defeat as they recorded only four hits opposite San Francisco’s 12. Craig Stammen (1-2) lasted only three innings as he surrendered five runs on six hits with three strikeouts and three walks. Interestingly, San Diego opened the scoring through Jake Cronenworth’s RBI double in the first innings but that was all from the Padres in this one. 

Yu Darvish (16-8) will be on the mound for the 31st time this year as he got the honor to open this wild card series for the Padres against the Mets on Friday. The 36-year-old right-hander owns a strong 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 197/37 K/BB ratio over 194.2 innings. 

Mets swept the Nationals to close the regular season

The New York Mets eclipsed a 100-win mark and finished the regular season with a 101-61 record. Even though they swept the Washington Nationals in a three-game series at home, allowing just four runs in the process, the Mets couldn’t win the NL East despite having the same record as the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta did sweep the Mets in the series before, and that turned out to be vital. 

New York scored all nine of its runs in the first three innings to secure a 9-2 victory over the Nats. Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha, and James McCann contributed with three RBIs apiece. Trevor Williams improved to a 3-5 record after pitching for 6.0 innings and allowing two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and no walks. 

Max Scherzer (11-5) is named a starter for the opening game of the NLWC series against the Padres on Friday. The 38-year-old right-hander had 23 starts this year and posted a great 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 173/24 K/BB ratio across 145.1 innings of work.


San Diego:

• 3-10 in the last 13 playoff games

• 1-5 in the last six playoff road games

New York:

• 6-2 in the last eight vs. National League West rivals

• 4-1 in the last five home games vs. a team with a winning record

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Pick

After surrendering just two runs in three starts in September, Max Scherzer opened October with a weak start and four runs allowed against Atlanta. Still, he was solid in a lone start against the Padres this year and registered a 3.00 ERA in 6.0 innings in a loss. On the other hand, Yu Darvish was excellent against the Mets this season; he started two and won both games with a microscopic 0.64 ERA over 14.0 innings. I do respect Darvish a lot, but this is playoffs and the Mets are playing at home, so they cannot afford to drop the win in the opener. Also, the Mets are batting well against right-handers as they register a .262 batting average with 5.13 runs per nine innings.

Pick: Take the Mets to win (-145)

The Total

Four of six H2H duels this season produced more than six runs, and I think we will have another 7+ run game in this one. The starters are experienced enough and will bring their A-game to this NLWC opener, but I still believe we will have Over in this tilt. Over is 5-2 in the Padres’ last seven playoff games; Over is 9-2 in the Mets’ previous 11 overall, Over is 5-1 in New York’s previous six home games, while Over is 6-1 in the Mets’ last seven playoff games.

Pick: Go Over 6 runs (-110)

Author: Nathan Rogers