The NFL action continues with Week 5 games on Sunday, October 9, and we have two AFC rivals on tap, so make sure you read the best Steelers vs. Bills betting pick and odds.
Buffalo is looking to improve to a 4-1 record when they welcome Pittsburgh at Highmark Stadium. The Bills are 14-point favorites on BetMGM NY Sportsbook, while the total is set at 46.5 points. These AFC rivals have met once in 2021, and the Steelers won that game 23-16 in Buffalo.
Steelers fell short to the Jets at home
The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3, 1-2-1 ATS) opened the season with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals but lost the following three games, including the most recent one to the New York Jets. Pittsburgh had a 20-10 lead early in the fourth quarter, but the Jets scored a pair of touchdowns to secure a 24-20 victory on the road. The Steelers weren’t careful with the ball in their hands and committed four turnovers opposite New York’s two.
Kenny Pickett completed 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards and three interceptions, while Mitch Trubisky completed seven of 13 passes for 84 yards and one interception. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth combined for 187 yards on 13 receptions (17 targets). Najee Harris led all the runners with 74 yards on 18 carries, but QB Kenny Pickett was the one to rush for two touchdowns. Defensively, Myles Jack led the team with nine tackles.
LB T.J. Watt is out indefinitely with a pectoral injury. CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), S Terrell Edmunds (concussion), and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) are questionable to play on Sunday against Buffalo.
Bills came from behind to beat the Ravens on the road
The Buffalo Bills (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS) bounced back from a tight defeat to the Miami Dolphins with a 23-20 road victory over the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Buffalo was 20-10 down at halftime, but scored 13 points in the second half and kept the hosts off the scoreboard to get a precious W. The Ravens controlled the possession (38:10-21:50), but that didn’t mean anything in the end.
Josh Allen completed 19 of 36 passes for 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also led the team in running with 70 yards and a score on 11 carries. Isaiah McKenzie caught that lone TD pass, while Stefon Diggs led all the receivers with 62 yards on four receptions. Matt Milano was a monster on defense as he led all the defenders with game-high 13 tackles (11 solos).
S Micah Hyde is still unavailable with a neck injury. WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), S Jordan Poyer (ribs), LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring), and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) are questionable to feature on Sunday against Pittsburgh.
Trends:
Pittsburgh:
1-3-1 ATS in the last five games overall1-3-1 ATS in the last five vs. AFC rivals2-5 ATS in the last seven road games
Buffalo:
6-2-2 ATS in the last ten games overall9-1-2 ATS in the last 12 vs. a team with a losing record7-1-2 ATS in the last ten games following an ATS loss4-0-1 ATS in the last five home games
Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills Pick
Kenny Pickett was named a starter for the game against the Bills, but I don’t think he is capable of helping the Steelers from suffering a heavy loss on Sunday. After two games in which Buffalo wasn’t great on offense, it’s time for the Bills to erupt, especially on pass offense. Pittsburgh is allowing 251.5 passing yards per game to the opponents, while the Bills have the second-best pass offense that averages 297.0 ypg. I am backing Allen and Diggs to destroy Pittsburgh’s injury-troubled secondary in this one.
Pick: Take the Bills at -13.5 (-120)
The Total
I won’t be surprised if the Bills score 30+ points here, but I have my doubts about Pittsburgh’s offense which is averaging 18.5 ppg. Also, Buffalo has the second-best defense that allows only 14.5 ppg, so don’t be shocked if the Steelers fail to score a touchdown and stay below 10 points on Sunday. Under is 6-1 in the last seven H2H meetings; Under is 8-3 in the Steelers’ last 11 games following an ATS loss, while Under is 4-0 in the Bills’ previous four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Pick: Go Under 46.5 points (-110)
