NY Sports Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

We have nine NFL games on the schedule for Sunday afternoon, September 25, but this divisional battle in Florida is surely the most intriguing one, so make sure you don’t miss out on the best Bills vs. Dolphins betting pick and odds.

Only three AFC teams have a perfect record after the opening two weeks, including Buffalo and Miami, but it won’t stay that way after they meet at Hard Rock Stadium. The Bills are -6 favorites on WynnBet Sportsbook, while the total is set at 52.5 points. These AFC East foes have met twice in 2021, and the Bills won both games.

Bills secured another comfortable win

The Buffalo Bills entered a new NFL season with a perfect 2-0 record after defeating two playoff teams from the last season – the Los Angeles Rams (reigning champions) and Tennessee Titans (last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC). Buffalo scored 24 unanswered points in the third quarter and kept the visitors off the scoreboard since 5:23 in the first quarter in an easy 41-7 victory over the Titans.

They let Tennessee just 187 yards in total and collected 414 on the other end, while the Bills had 23 first downs opposite the Titans’ 12. Buffalo’s defense was phenomenal as it forced four turnovers, while the offense didn’t commit a single one in return. Josh Allen completed 26 of 38 passes for 317 yards and four touchdowns. Three of those TD passes went to Stefon Diggs, who ended the game with 148 yards on 12 receptions. Matt Milano scored the first defensive touchdown of his career after a pick-six in the third quarter.

Both CB Dane Jackson and S Micah Hyde sustained neck injuries against Tennessee, and are questionable to feature on Sunday against Miami. DT Ed Oliver (ankle), TE Dawson Knox (foot), S Jordan Poyer (foot), and WR Gabe Davis (ankle) are also questionable to play.

Dolphins came from a 21-point deficit to beat the Ravens

The Miami Dolphins were down by 21 points after three quarters against the Baltimore Ravens on the road, but fought back and completed a 42-38 comeback in an inspiring victory. Miami scored even four touchdowns in the final 12 minutes of the tilt, all four through the air, as Tua Tagovailoa had the best game of his career.

Tagovailoa completed 36 of 50 passes for career-high 469 yards, career-high six touchdowns, and two interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle exploded for combined 361 yards and four touchdowns as both receivers caught 11 passes each. Miami totaled 547 yards opposite Baltimore’s 473, while the Dolphins had almost ten minutes more of possession. Christian Wilkins and Eric Rowe combined for 14 tackles.

Betting Trends:


2-5 ATS in the last seven games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points0-4 ATS in the last four games on grass


9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 games overall6-2 ATS in the last eight games following an ATS win6-1 ATS in the last seven home games

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Pick  

There is no doubt the Bills have the best team in the NFL and were rightfully favored to win the Super Bowl in the offseason. However, the Marlins are looking much stronger with Tyreek Hill, and his partnership with Jaylen Waddle has to be considered the deadliest receiving duo at the moment. 

They are able to unlock any defense and torch secondaries, but Miami’s defense cannot afford another slow start like was the case in Baltimore. This time around, I don’t think the offense will bail them out. Buffalo is having a lot of injured players on its defense, which is a chance for the hosts to attack and score as many points as possible. It’s going to be an exciting duel.

Pick: Take the Dolphins at +6.5 (-120)

The Total

Miami knows that they cannot let Buffalo take a big early lead as they allowed to Baltimore last week. I expect the Dolphins’ defense to show a much better display at home and record some sacks after failing to make a single one against the Ravens. The Bills’ defense is hurt at the moment, but they have what it takes to keep the team alive, so I don’t think we will have a classic shootout repetition from Baltimore. Under is 8-3 in the Dolphins’ last 11 vs. AFC East opponents. The Bills allowed just 17 points in total in the first two games of the season.

Pick: Go Under 52.5 (-110)

Author: Nathan Rogers