New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Odds, Pick, Prediction 11/17/22

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Who will gain the upper in this great AFC East battle between two teams fighting for playoff position? Find out in our best Jets vs. Patriots betting pick and odds preview as we take a look at the Week 11 tilt of the NFL scheduled to play on Sunday, November 17. 

New York will be looking to move to a perfect 5-0 on the road when they travel to take on New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots enter as 3 point favorites on BetMGM NY Sportsbook, while the total is set at 38.5 points. These clubs met on October 30, a 22-17 New England victory. Both teams had their bye weeks last Sunday.

Jets Clip Bills Late

The New York Jets (6-3-0, 3-6-0 ATS) defeated the Buffalo Bills with a field goal in the final two minutes to earn a 20-17 victory. New York rallied from an 11-point deficit, as Michael Carter scored from 6 yards out and James Robinson hauled in a seven-yard touchdown pass from Zach Wilson. The Bills tied the score, but Greg Zuerlein hit a 28-yard field goal with 1:43 left to give the Jets the victory.

Michael Carter rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries as the Jets ran for 174 yards total, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Zach Wilson completed 18 of 25 passes, but for just 154 yards. The New York defense was outstanding, recording five sacks and had two interceptions. The Bills were held to just 183 yards passing.

WR Corey Davis (knee), DL Sheldon Rankins (elbow), and LB C.J. Mosley (arm) are all listed as questionable. OL George Fant (knee) and OL Greg Senat (undisclosed) are out.

Patriots Crush Colts

The New England Patriots (5-4-0, 5-3-1 ATS) recorded nine sacks in dominating the Indianapolis Colts, 26-3. The Patriots opened with 13 unanswered points, including two 40+ yard field goals by Nick Folk. Folk hit four field goals overall. Rhamondre Stevenson had a three-yard touchdown reception and Jonathan Jones returned an interception 17 yards for a score.

Folk hit 43-, 42-, 49-, and 35-yard field goals. It was a big day for Patriots defense as Mathew Judon and Josh Uche each had three sacks. Stevenson rushed for 60 yards on 15 carries and had three catches for 10 yards and a TD. Mac Jones completed 20 of 30 passes for 147 yards. It was his third straight week finishing with under 200 yards passing.

DL Christian Barmore (knee), CB Shaun Wade (illness), C David Andrews (concussion), and WR DeVante Harris (illness) are all listed as questionable. Out are QB Bryan Hoyer (head), WR Ty Montgomery (knee), RB Damien Harris (illness), and OL Marcus Cannon (concussion).

Trends:

New York:

4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. 

4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.

4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC opponents.

New England:

1-4 ATS in their last five games against AFC East opponents. 

1-3-1 ATS in their last five games when rushing for 90 or fewer yards in the previous contest.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Pick  

New York is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams, and are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in New England. That would seem to be a trend that would favor the Patriots, but one cannot have too much confidence in Jones right now. In his last five contests, he has three touchdowns against six interceptions, and has thrown for better than 300 yards in just one of his six games.

The New England defense dominated the last time the team took to the field, but that was against Indianapolis. The Jets are not a dominating offense, but they are averaging 21.8 points per game (19th overall) and have a solid defense, 10th overall at 19.6 points allowed per game. New England should have trouble moving the ball, and that will help the Jets keep it close if not win this contest out right.

Pick: Take the New York Jets at +3.0 (-105)

The Total

The earlier matchup between these teams saw 39 points scored in the game. That was a contest where the Patriots benefited from three Zach Wilson interceptions, but that was more of an anomaly. Those three interceptions were his only picks in the last five games, so expect him to clean up his act, which should limit New England to no more than 16 points in this contest.

The Patriots’ defense has been very good over the last five weeks, holding opponents to 17 points or fewer in four of those games. In fact, they have allowed 68 total points in those five contests. A battle of solid defenses should keep this score down. These teams have gone under in nine of the last 13 meetings. New York has gone under in four straight games while New England has gone under in four of their last five games following the bye week.

Pick: Go under 38.5 (-105)

Author: Nathan Rogers