The MLB betting action continues with a 13-game Thursday card, including the NL East showdown at Citi Field in Queens, New York, so here’s the best Marlins vs. Mets betting pick along with the latest odds update on FanDuel NY Sportsbook.
Miami and New York open a four-game set with Game 8 of their regular-season series. The Mets have won their previous two sets and five of their first seven encounters in 2022.
The Marlins are hot in July
The Miami Marlins beat the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 this past Tuesday, improving their record to 39-40 for the season. The Marlins were only three games behind the bottom wild card in the NL but still ten games off the NL East-leading New York Mets.
Wednesday’s games have been excluded from this preview, and Miami searched for its seventh straight win, hosting the Angels in the closing contest of their two-game interleague series. The Marlins have recorded a solid .254/.320/.441 triple-slash in the last seven days and 177 at-bats, while their pitching staff has compiled a shiny 1.91 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and .177 batting average against.
Daniel Castano will toe the rubber Thursday at Citi Field. The 27-year-old southpaw took his first win of the season last Saturday, allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks across five frames in a 5-3 victory at the lowly Washington Nationals. He’s now 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP in four starts and three relief apps in 2022.
The Mets need to improve at the dish
The 50-31 New York Mets took on the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday night to close down their three-game series in Ohio. The Mets won the opener 7-4 but suffered a tough 1-0 loss in the middle game thanks to Mike Moustakas’ walk-off sacrifice fly.
New York desperately needs more from its offense. The Mets have scored just 18 runs over its previous five outings while slashing .242/.317/.412. They’ve registered a poor .657 OPS in the last couple of weeks and 362 at-bats.
Trevor Williams will toe the slab Thursday and look for his first win since May 31 when he tossed five innings in a 10-0 dismantling of the Nationals. The 30-year-old right-hander is 1-5 with a serviceable 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts and eight relief appearances (45.2 innings) in 2022. He struggled last time out, surrendering five runs across just 3.2 frames of work in a 7-3 defeat to the Texas Rangers.
Trends:
Miami:
3-8 in the last 11 games against the Mets
NY Mets:
15-5 in the last 20 games at home13-5 in the last 18 home games against Miami
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Pick
Both Daniel Castano and Trevor Williams have a lot to prove, but I don’t expect them to last for too long Thursday. Castano has thrown 15.1 innings over his previous three outings, tallying a 4.11 ERA and 5.72 FIP. On the other side, Williams has a bloated 6.57 ERA and 8.22 FIP in his last four appearances and 12.1 innings pitched.
I would lean on New York’s bullpen to make the difference down the stretch, while the Mets’ offense will have to turn the corner eventually. They know Miami’s pitching staff very well.
Pick: Take New York Mets
The Total:
The Mets’ bullpen has a 2.52 ERA in the last couple of weeks and 35.2 innings of work, while the Marlins’ bullpen has registered a 3.44 ERA across 36.2 frames in that span. We shouldn’t see a lot of runs late in this game, but the starting duo cannot be trusted.
The over is 4-3 in the first seven meetings between the Marlins and Mets in 2022, and it is 11-9 in their previous 20 encounters. It’s a tricky bet, so the hosts would be my best Marlins vs. Mets pick.
Pick: Go over
