Week 15 of the NFL continues with this intriguing divisional rivalry game in Buffalo on Saturday, December 17, so make sure you take a look at the best Dolphins vs. Bills betting pick and odds.
Buffalo is searching for the fifth consecutive victory when they welcome Miami at Highmark Stadium. The Bills are -7.5 favorites on FanDuel NY, while the total is set at 42 points. These AFC East foes have met once this season, and the Dolphins won 21-19 in Miami.
Dolphins suffered back-to-back defeats
The Miami Dolphins (8-5-0, 6-7-0 ATS) are hoping to avoid the third loss in a row for the second time this season. They will conclude a three-game road trip with this game against Buffalo after losing the opening two against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins deservedly lost 23-17 to the Chargers as the hosts were much better in total yards (432-219), first downs (24-14), and possession (39:38-20:22).
Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have a good game as he completed just ten of 28 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill was on the receiving end of that lone TD pass; he led the team with 81 yards on four catches. Raheem Mostert had 37 rushing yards on 11 carries in what was a pale offensive display from the Dolphins. Defensively, though, they recorded four sacks opposite Los Angeles’ two. Jerome Baker posted a game-high 11 tackles.
DE Trey Flowers (foot) and DE Emmanuel Ogbah (triceps) are out indefinitely. QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee), CB Eric Rowe (undisclosed), RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip), and RB Myles Gaskin (ankle) are questionable to face Buffalo on Saturday.
Bills are on the roll again
The Buffalo Bills (10-3-1, 6-6-1 ATS) are currently on a four-game winning run, their longest winning streak of the season. Buffalo returned home from a two-game road trip and victories over the Lions and Patriots and beat the divisional rivals New York Jets 20-12. Although the Jets were better in total yards (309-232), first downs (19-14), and possession (34:25-25:35), the visitors did commit a couple of turnovers and forced none on the other end. The Bills had a 20-7 lead midway through the fourth quarter, and the Jets only managed to soften a defeat.
Josh Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for a season-low 147 yards and a touchdown. He also led the team in rushing yards with 47 and a touchdown on ten attempts. Dawson Knox caught that TD pass from Allen and had a team-high 41 yards on four receptions, while Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis combined for only 68 yards on six catches. On defense, Greg Rousseau registered two sacks, while Matt Milano had a game-high nine tackles and one recovered fumble.
LB Von Miller (knee), S Micah Hyde (knee), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), and T Tommy Doyle (ACL) are out indefinitely. DT Jordan Phillips (shoulder), DT Ed Oliver (chest), and T Ryan Bates (ankle) are questionable to feature on Saturday against the Dolphins.
Trends:
Miami:
9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 vs. AFC East rivals
Buffalo:
2-5 ATS in the last seven games overall
1-4 ATS in the last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
After losing two games in a row, I expect the Dolphins to cause problems for the Bills in this one and put up a fight against the divisional foes. Tua Tagovailoa will bounce back from a weak display against the Chargers, so expect to see an improved display from the pass offense that is averaging 277.9 yards per game – the 2nd best in the NFL.
It’s not going to be easy to score points against the 2nd best defense in the league that is allowing just 17.0 ppg, but Buffalo is not defending the air very well, which is a chance for Tua, Hill, and Waddle to do damage.
Pick: Take the Dolphins at +9.5 (-130) at my favorite NY betting site BetMGM
The Total
Miami’s defense is not among the best in the league as it allows 24.0 points per contest, and it is facing a top 5 offense that is scoring 27.2 ppg. I mentioned Buffalo’s average pass defense, but the Dolphins’ is even weaker as it surrenders 242.5 yards per game to the opposing receivers. Allen didn’t play well when it comes to passing against the Jets and had a season-low 147 yards, but I expect him to respond against Miami. We will likely see multiple passing touchdowns on each end. Over is 6-1 in the last seven H2H meetings in Buffalo, while Over is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five road games.
Pick: Go Over 40.5 points (-130)
