Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Pick, Prediction 1/15/23

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

We have three NFL playoff games scheduled for Sunday, January 15, including this AFC Wild Card clash in Buffalo, and here you can get the best Dolphins vs. Bills betting pick and odds.

Buffalo is looking for the eighth straight victory when they welcome Miami at Highmark Stadium. The Bills are 9-point favorites on PointsBet NY Sportsbook, while the total is set at 47 points. These divisional foes faced twice this year, and the series is tied at 1-1.

Dolphins edged the Jets to make the playoffs

The Miami Dolphins (9-8-0, 9-8-0 ATS) needed a home win over the New York Jets and a favor from the Bills against the New England Patriots. The Dolphins indeed beat the Jets 11-6, while the Bills defeated New England, and Miami secured a playoff spot. Miami snapped a five-game losing skid with this victory against New York. Although it was a hard-fought W, it was a fully deserved one. The Dolphins were better in total yards (302-187), first downs (17-11), and possession (35:25-24:35).

Skylar Thompson completed 20 of 31 passes for 152 yards. Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert played well on the ground and combined for 143 yards on 27 carries. Mike Gesicki led the Dolphins in receiving yards with 46 on four receptions, while Jaylen Waddle contributed 44 yards on five catches. Defensively, Jevon Holland led the team with seven tackles.

DE Trey Flowers (foot), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (triceps), and RB Myles Gaskin (shoulder) are out indefinitely. RB Raheem Mostert (thumb), CB Xavien Howard (knee), and QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) are questionable to play on Sunday against Buffalo.

Bills beat the Patriots and eliminated them from the playoffs

The Buffalo Bills (13-3-0, 8-7-1 ATS) recorded their seventh consecutive win as they beat the New England Patriots, 35-23 at home. It was a win dedicated to Damar Hamlin, who is recovering from cardiac arrest he suffered against Cincinnati, but it was also a win against bitter rivals, who were knockout out of the playoffs. Nyheim Hines was phenomenal in the win; he returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and became the first player to do so in a game since 2010 and Seattle’s Leon Washington.

Josh Allen completed 19 of 31 passes for 254 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Stefon Diggs led all the receivers with 104 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. John Brown had only one catch but it was for a 42-yard TD, while Dawson Knox also registered a receiving touchdown. James Cook posted 45 rushing yards on nine attempts. On defense, Jordan Poyer got a game-high nine tackles.

LB Von Miller (knee), S Micah Hyde (neck), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), T Tommy Doyle (ACL), and S Damar Hamlin (heart) are out indefinitely.

Trends:

Miami:

0-4 ATS in the last four playoff games

1-4-1 ATS in the last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Buffalo:

5-2 ATS in the last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game

3-1-1 ATS in the last five games in January

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Pick

The Bills did have problems with Miami this season. In fact, one of their three defeats came against the Dolphins, while Buffalo came from behind to beat Miami 32-29 at home, but this is playoffs and I am backing the hosts to get a comfortable win. 

If Tua Tagovailoa is unable to feature, the Bills will be even bigger favorites. Miami did beat the Jets but is not playing well recently as the Dolphins suffered five straight losses prior to that W. On the other hand, the Bills are red hot and there is no way the second-best offense and second-best defense in the NFL will fail to beat the Dolphins here.

Pick: Take the Bills at -7.5 (-125)

The Total

Buffalo averages 28.4 points per game and allows 17.9 ppg. Miami has a good offense that scores 23.4 ppg, but the defense is not playing well as the Dolphins surrender 23.5 ppg. The Dolphins have the fourth-best pass offense that averages 265.4 yards per contest, but without Tua, it’s going to be hard against Buffalo’s secondary that allows 214.6 ypg to the opposing receivers. 

I doubt the visitors will score more than 14 points, so I am going with a low-scoring affair. Under is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five playoff games, while Under is 7-3 in the Bills’ previous ten vs. AFC rivals.

Pick: Go Under 48.5 points (-130)

Author: Nathan Rogers