Week 13 of the NFL starts with this exciting divisional rivalry game in Foxborough on Thursday, December 1, and here you can get the best Bills vs. Patriots betting pick and odds.
Buffalo is looking for the third win in a row when they face New England at Gillette Stadium. The Bills are 5-point favorites on BetMGM NY Sportsbook, while the total is set at 43.5 points. These AFC East foes met three times last year, and the Bills won two of those games, including the playoffs.
Bills edged the Lions in Detroit
The Buffalo Bills (8-3-0, 5-5-1 ATS) responded to a pair of defeats to the Jets and Vikings with a couple of wins over the Browns and Lions. Buffalo had a much harder job than expected against the Detroit Lions and trailed twice in a game that they somehow managed to win 28-25. It was a one-possession game since the start, and in the end, Tyler Bass prevented the overtime with a game-winning field goal, even though Detroit tied with just 23 seconds to go.
Josh Allen completed 24 of 42 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He led all the runners with game-high 78 yards and a score on ten carries, while Devin Singletary was right behind with 72 yards on 14 attempts. Isaiah McKenzie and Stefon Diggs combined for 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches (25 targets). On defense, Jordan Poyer was solid with a game-high ten tackles.
S Micah Hyde (neck), LB Von Miller (knee), T Tommy Doyle (ACL), and WR Jamison Crowder (ankle) are out indefinitely. T Dion Dawkins (ankle), S Jaquan Johnson (illness), and CB Dane Jackson (illness) are questionable to face New England on Thursday.
Patriots failed to score in the fourth quarter in a loss to the Vikings
The New England Patriots (6-5-0, 6-4-1 ATS) were on a three-game winning streak but couldn’t make it four in a row despite being in a good position against the Minnesota Vikings on the road. New England had a 26-23 lead after the opening three quarters, but the hosts scored ten unanswered points in the final 15 minutes to get a 33-26 victory. The Patriots had more total yards (409-358) and didn’t commit a single turnover, but that wasn’t enough to beat the Vikings.
Mac Jones completed 28 of 39 passes for career-high 382 yards and two touchdowns. It was the best game of Jones’ young career, and it’s a shame the team didn’t record a win. He connected with Nelson Agholor and Hunter Henry in the end zone, while DeVante Parker and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 156 yards on 13 receptions (14 targets). New England didn’t care much about the run offense as they collected only 45 yards on 13 carries. Defensively, Kyle Dugger had a game-high nine tackles.
QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) and RB Ty Montgomery (knee) are out indefinitely and will not play on Thursday against Buffalo. C David Andrews (thigh), T Isaiah Wynn (foot), and RB Damien Harris (thigh) are questionable.
Trends:
Buffalo:
12-3 ATS in the last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 vs. AFC East rivals
New England:
2-7-1 ATS in the last ten games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
1-5 ATS in the last six games in December
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Pick
Buffalo is better than New England in pretty much every segment. The Bills have the second-best offense in the NFL that is averaging 28.1 points per game, while the Pats are scoring 21.7 ppg. When it comes to defense, the divisional foes are close and both belong among the best six in the league.
These rivalry games are always tricky and could go either way, but I am backing the visitors who have more talented players on offense. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Devin Singletary will be too much for the Pats to handle. All eyes will be on Allen, though, for his ability to both pass and run the ball efficiently.
Pick: Take the Bills at -3.5 (-130)
The Total
The Patriots have an excellent pass defense that keeps the opposing quarterbacks below 200 yards per game (198.5). Buffalo has a solid secondary, but the Bills are much better in run defense and are currently 7th in the league with 105.6 yards per game allowed to the opposing runners.
When such two strong defensive teams meet, I usually go with a low-scoring affair, which is the case in this one. Under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last six road games; Under is 6-0 in Buffalo’s previous six games following a straight-up win, while Under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last seven games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Pick: Go Under 45.5 points (-130)
