Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Pick, Prediction 10/16/22

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Probably the most intriguing and anticipated game of Week 6 in the NFL will be played between these conference rivals on Sunday, October 16, so make sure you don’t miss out on the best Bills vs. Chiefs betting pick and odds.

Both Buffalo and Kansas City are hoping to improve to a 5-1 record when they face at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills are -2.5 favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook, while the total is set at 54 points. These conference foes have faced twice in 2021, and each side registered a win, but the Chiefs took a more important one in the playoffs.

Bills humiliated the Steelers at home

The Buffalo Bills (4-1, 3-1-1 ATS) had an easy job in a home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after returning home from a two-game road trip. The Bills already decided the tilt in the opening half as they got to a 28-point lead and then took the foot off the gas in the second half but still cruised to a 38-3 victory. Buffalo dominated total yards (552-364), and although the Steelers had more possession (36:08-23:52), that was useless as they suffered a massive defeat.

Once again, Josh Allen was great as he demolished the Steelers’ secondary with 20 completed passes for 424 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. On top of that excellent passing display, Allen also led the team in rushing yards with 42 on five attempts, but James Cook was the one to score the only touchdown on the ground. 

The Bills were unstoppable through the air. Gabe Davis excelled with 171 yards and two touchdowns on just three catches. Stefon Diggs was his usual self with 102 yards and a score on eight receptions, while Khalil Shakir also found the end zone. Defensively, Tyrel Dodson and Kaiir Elam combined for 21 tackles.  

S Micah Hyde (neck), LB Andre Smith (suspension), and WR Jamison Crowder (ankle) are out. TE Dawson Knox (hamstring), S Jordan Poyer (ribs), and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are questionable to face the Chiefs on Sunday.

Chiefs beat the Raiders in a thriller

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 2-3 ATS) experienced a turbulent divisional rivalry game against the Las Vegas at home but somehow came up as winners in a 30-29 thriller. You don’t see such fourth quarters often; the Chiefs got to a 30-23 lead after scoring a TD but failed to convert a two-point attempt. After that, the Raiders had a chance to tie the game after scoring a touchdown, but they opted for a 2-point conversion and failed!

Patrick Mahomes was mistake-less as he completed 29 of 43 passes for 292 yards and four touchdowns. We know that Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite target, but nobody expected Kelce to catch four touchdown passes, even though he had only 25 yards on seven receptions. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman combined for 163 receiving yards on ten catches. When it comes to rushing, Jerick McKinnon led the Chiefs with 53 yards on eight carries. Darius Harris was a presence on defense with game-high ten tackles.

LB Willie Gay Jr. is unavailable due to suspension. K Harrison Butker (ankle) is questionable to feature against Buffalo on Sunday.



7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 games overall 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game5-2-1 ATS in the last eight vs. AFC rivals

Kansas City:

0-4 ATS in the last four vs. AFC opponents1-4 ATS in the last five games following a straight-up win0-4 ATS in the last four games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick  

It’s very hard to predict the outcome of this game as both teams are Super Bowl contenders and both started the season well. There are no better offenses than these two, but the Bills have the best defense in the NFL that allows just 12.2 ppg. 

Although I don’t expect this to be a low-scoring game in which the defenses will have the lead role, I am backing Buffalo’s D to make some crucial stops late in the game and propel its team to the win. The inevitable combo of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs can hurt any secondary, and given the Chiefs are allowing 255.6 ypg to the receivers, I think the visitors will exploit that.

Pick: Take the Bills at -2.5 (-110)

The Total

These teams are combining for more than 62 points per contest, so expect to see a lot of points in this one. Buffalo has the best pass offense in the league which averages 324.0 ypg, while Kansas City averages 267.2 ypg. The good news for those who like watching high-scoring affairs and betting on them is that the rivals will probably put their run offenses aside and focus on passing. 

I am backing multiple passing TDs from each side. Over is 5-1 in the previous six H2H duels in Kansas City; Over is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last ten games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game, while Over is 10-3 in the Chiefs’ previous 13 games overall.

Pick: Go Over 53.5 points (-120)

Author: Nathan Rogers